Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Indian rice export policy in 2026: scenario propagation across importers
India sits at the fulcrum of the global rice market, and its 2026 export stance will set the price floor and security ceiling for a dozen import-dependent economies from Dhaka to Dakar.
India typically supplies close to 40 percent of internationally traded rice, so any shift in New Delhi's export policy reverberates through the budgets of poor households across South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Gulf. Since 2022, a sequence of Directorate General of Foreign Trade notifications has alternately curbed and reopened whe...
Latin America Soybean Cycle 2026: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay
South American supply, Chinese demand, and ENSO neutrality define the 2026 to 2027 oilseed map. Ceres assesses three trade scenarios.
The 2025 to 2026 Latin American soybean cycle marks a structural reset for the global oilseed complex. Brazil is on track for a record harvest above 175 million tonnes, Argentina is rebuilding stocks after the 2023 to 2024 drought, and the Paraguay and Uruguay cluster is consolidating its role as a swing supplier to China and the European...
West Africa Wheat Shock 2026: Import Dependence, Fiscal Pass-Through, and Political Risk
How a tightening Black Sea balance, a rigid Russian export quota cycle, and weakening CFA and naira positions are reshaping bread economics from Dakar to Abuja.
West Africa enters the second quarter of 2026 with the highest wheat import bill in its history, driven by a thinner Black Sea exportable surplus, a punitive Russian quota cycle running from February to June, and weakening local currencies. Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso together import roughly 13 to 14 million t...
Food-shock propagation in 2026: from CPI to political risk
A 25 percent move in wheat, rice, or sugar in 2026 reaches household budgets in eight import-dependent countries within 90 days, blows out fiscal subsidy lines within six months, and shows up as street pressure inside a year. The propagation chain is mappable.
A 2026 food shock has three plausible origins: a Black Sea wheat disruption, an Indian rice export ban extension, or a Brazilian and Indian sugar squeeze tied to ethanol diversion and cane yield loss. Each origin moves through the same five-stage chain: futures markets, freight and FX, landed import prices, domestic CPI, and fiscal subsid...