Electoral and political intelligence
2026-04-26
10 minute read
16 sources
Chile 2025 to 2026 Cycle: The Boric Exit, the Right Reset, and the Copper Lithium Macro
Gabriel Boric leaves office on March 11, 2026, after a single constitutional term, two failed constitutional rewrites, a copper trough at Codelco, and a pension reform that took three years and arrived in the final stretch. The November 2025 first round and the December 2025 runoff put Jose Antonio Kast in La Moneda. The macro that follows is set by copper price, lithium royalty design, the IMF Article IV path, and migration normalization.
Chile closed the Boric administration with the lowest end of term approval since the return to democracy, two rejected constitutional drafts in twenty four months, the lowest Codelco copper output since 1998, and a National Lithium Strategy still in mid implementation. The November 16, 2025 first round produced Jose Antonio Kast of the Pa...