Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
AfCFTA Execution 2026: From Tariff Schedules to Settled Trades
Six years after the Agreement entered into force, the African Continental Free Trade Area is moving from text to transactions: the Guided Trade Initiative is widening, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System is now live across more than sixteen central banks, and the rules of origin file for manufactured goods finally cleared.
The AfCFTA entered into force on 30 May 2019 and now organizes 54 of 55 African Union members into a single market of roughly 1.4 billion people. Execution in 2026 rests on four moving parts: the Guided Trade Initiative, which expanded from eight pilot countries in 2022 to a wider Phase 2 cohort by 2025; the Pan-African Payment and Settle...
Africa's 2026 Sovereign Restructuring Cycle: Common Framework Outcomes, China Bilateral Geometry, and IMF Program Design
Six African sovereigns defaulted between 2020 and 2024. Zambia, Ghana, Chad, and Ethiopia have now closed Eurobond and bilateral deals. The pipeline runs through Egypt, Angola, Tunisia, Kenya, Mozambique, and Senegal, while 21 Sub Saharan countries are in active IMF programs and external debt service hits roughly USD 100 billion in 2025 and 2026.
Africa's external Eurobond stock peaked near USD 145 billion in 2021 and stood at roughly USD 140 billion at end 2024, per S&P Global Ratings. Six issuers defaulted across 2020 to 2024: Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique on the Tuna Bond, and Mali on regional debt. The G20 Common Framework, launched in November 2020, has now produc...
The African data center buildout 2026: Lagos, Nairobi, Cape Town, and Cairo
Africa hosts roughly 1.5 percent of global colocation capacity but is on track to triple installed megawatts by 2028, with Lagos, Nairobi, Cape Town, and Cairo absorbing the bulk of new builds and forcing fresh thinking on power, regulation, and inference latency.
African data center capacity is finally inflecting in 2026. Installed colocation power across the continent now sits near 700 megawatts, still a small share of the global 55 gigawatt market, but contracted pipelines suggest a path to roughly 1.8 gigawatts by 2028. South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, and Morocco anchor that growth. The st...
CFA Franc Reform and the ECO Currency: West and Central African Monetary Architecture Through 2026
The 2019 Macron-Ouattara accord rebranded the West African CFA but kept the EUR peg at 655.957. The ECOWAS ECO project missed its 2020 and 2027 anchor dates and now eyes 2027. The Sahel exits, the Faye-Sonko government in Senegal, the BEAC FX shortage, and the diverging Eurozone inflation differential are reshaping a monetary zone that covers 14 countries, roughly 200 million people, and around USD 250 billion in combined GDP.
The CFA franc, in circulation since 1945, anchors two distinct monetary unions. The West African CFA (XOF) is issued by the Banque Centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (BCEAO) for the eight WAEMU members. The Central African CFA (XAF) is issued by the Banque des Etats de l'Afrique Centrale (BEAC) for the six CEMAC members. Both pegs...
DRC, Rwanda, and the M23 Conflict in 2026: East Congo Mineral Economics, Sanctions Geometry, and Battery Supply Chain Exposure
M23 captured Goma in January 2025 and Bukavu in March 2025, with the UN Group of Experts documenting roughly 4,000 Rwanda Defence Force personnel embedded with the militia. The DRC produces about 73 percent of mined cobalt and roughly 40 percent of mined tantalum globally, per USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. The conflict, the OFAC and EU Council sanctions cycle, and the Trump March 2025 minerals for security framework now sit on top of the EV battery supply chain.
The Mouvement du 23 Mars resumed operations in November 2021 in North Kivu after a nine year dormancy following its 2013 defeat. By late January 2025 M23 had taken Goma, capital of North Kivu and a city of roughly two million, and on February 16, 2025 it captured Bukavu, capital of South Kivu. The Forces Armees de la Republique Democratiq...
Indian rice export policy in 2026: scenario propagation across importers
India sits at the fulcrum of the global rice market, and its 2026 export stance will set the price floor and security ceiling for a dozen import-dependent economies from Dhaka to Dakar.
India typically supplies close to 40 percent of internationally traded rice, so any shift in New Delhi's export policy reverberates through the budgets of poor households across South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Gulf. Since 2022, a sequence of Directorate General of Foreign Trade notifications has alternately curbed and reopened whe...
Mauritania and Senegal 2026: GTA first cargo, BP and Kosmos cash flow, and the MSGBC basin's 50 Tcf moment
Greater Tortue Ahmeyim shipped its first LNG cargo in early 2025 after a five year delay. The next 18 months decide whether BP, Kosmos, Petrosen, and SMHPM can sanction Phase 2, whether Senegal's Faye and Sonko government renegotiates without breaking the project, and whether the MSGBC basin becomes Africa's third LNG axis after Nigeria and Mozambique.
The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project produced first gas in December 2024 and shipped its first LNG cargo in February 2025, anchoring a Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Conakry (MSGBC) basin holding more than 50 trillion cubic feet of contingent gas resource. BP holds 56 percent of GTA Phase 1, Kosmos Energy 27 percent, Petrosen 1...
Mauritius 2026: blue economy, financial center reset, and the Chagos sovereignty deal
The Indian Ocean's smallest sovereign EEZ holder controls 1.96 million square kilometers of ocean, USD 700 billion in offshore assets, and now Diego Garcia's reversionary title. Alliance du Changement won 60 of 62 seats in November 2024. The Chagos treaty was signed October 2024. Mauritius is repositioning as Africa's blue finance and policy laboratory through 2030.
Mauritius enters 2026 with three structural breaks running in parallel. The Alliance du Changement coalition led by Navin Ramgoolam swept the November 10, 2024 general election with 60 of 62 directly elected seats, ending three decades of MSM dominance under Pravind Jugnauth. The October 3, 2024 political agreement with the United Kingdom...
Morocco's automotive cluster 2026: Tangier, Kenitra, and the EV transition test
Renault Tangier Med, Stellantis Kenitra, and a phosphate to LFP cathode play position Morocco as Europe's nearshore EV factory, but CBAM, US Foreign Entity of Concern rules, and rules of origin renegotiation will decide which of the projects actually clear.
Morocco's automotive sector overtook phosphates and agri food to become the country's largest goods export in 2023 and consolidated that lead through 2025, with shipments reported by the Office des Changes crossing 157 billion dirhams, equivalent to roughly 14.6 billion euros. The Renault Tangier Med complex passed one million cumulative ...
Namibia's Orange Basin Awakens, Venus FID Slips to 2026 to 2027
Three operators (TotalEnergies, Shell, Galp) have outlined more than 15 billion barrels of recoverable resource off Namibia, yet Venus FID is now 2026 to 2027. Project economics, fiscal terms, and political continuity will decide first oil.
Between January 2022 and April 2024, three operators converted Namibia's Orange Basin from frontier prospect into one of the largest oil discoveries of the decade. TotalEnergies booked 2 to 3 billion barrels recoverable at Venus (Block 2913B), Shell logged Graff, La Rona, Jonker, Lesedi, and Mopane on Block 2913A, and Galp announced Mopan...
Lagos Crude: Dangote Refinery and the Atlantic Basin Gasoline Reordering Through 2026
Africa's largest refinery is rewriting the Atlantic Basin gasoline map. The 2026 to 2027 question is whether the naira-denominated crude template, NNPCL flotation, and pump price normalization can hold.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the Lekki Free Zone east of Lagos sits on a single contiguous site of roughly 2,635 hectares, with a nameplate distillation capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.....
West Africa iron ore 2026: Simandou first ore, ArcelorMittal Liberia, and the rail port economics that decide the corridor
Simandou begins shipping in late 2025 and ramps to 60 mtpa by 2028. ArcelorMittal Liberia is rebuilding the Yekepa to Buchanan corridor toward 30 mtpa. The two projects, plus Marampa in Sierra Leone, will reset the 65 percent Fe seaborne pool that China's electric arc furnace transition needs.
Simandou in southeast Guinea holds 2.4 billion tonnes of high grade iron ore at roughly 65 percent Fe, the largest untapped deposit of its quality in the world. The Simfer joint venture (Rio Tinto 53 percent, Winning Consortium Simandou 47 percent across blocks 1 and 2, with Chinalco and Baowu participating) committed USD 11.6 billion in ...
Yemen and Sudan in 2026: Two War Economies, One Red Sea Risk Pool
Sudan's RSF gold corridor and Yemen's Houthi shipping interdiction have fused into a single Red Sea risk perimeter that humanitarian financing alone cannot stabilize.
Sudan and Yemen now anchor the world's largest concentrated humanitarian caseload, with roughly 30 million Sudanese and 19 million Yemenis classified as in need by UN OCHA at the start of 2026. Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known a...