Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Cuba 2026: Currency Collapse, Blackouts, and the Demographic Drain
Five years after Tarea Ordenamiento, Cuba runs a parallel rate near 380 CUP per dollar against an official 24, 750,000 Cubans have walked into the United States, and the grid fails twice a quarter. The 2026 outlook is contraction with Venezuelan optics.
Cuba's Tarea Ordenamiento, launched January 1, 2021, was framed as a textbook unification: retire the convertible peso (CUC), keep the Cuban peso (CUP), set a single rate at 24 CUP per dollar, and let productivity catch up. Five years on, the official 24 rate persists only for select state transactions, the household informal market clear...
Greek Tourism Overflow and Shipping Tax Windfall: Pricing the 2026 Crossroads
Greece's 2026 macro crossroads across tourism capacity, shipping tax, debt dynamics, and euro-area risk pricing.
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Greece 2026: The Sovereign Upgrade Arc, Tourism Cash Flow, and the Re-Equitization Trade
Athens has completed the round trip from junk to investment grade across all three majors, the Mitsotakis second term is locking in a 2.5 percent primary surplus rule, and the Recovery and Resilience Plan deadline forces a hard execution sprint into 2026.
Greece enters 2026 having retraced one of the most violent fiscal arcs in modern European history. The PSI haircut of 2012 wrote down 53.5 percent of nominal private sector claims on the sovereign, ESM and EFSF official sector loans replaced market debt at long maturities and below-market coupons, and three successive Memorandums of Under...
Mauritius 2026: blue economy, financial center reset, and the Chagos sovereignty deal
The Indian Ocean's smallest sovereign EEZ holder controls 1.96 million square kilometers of ocean, USD 700 billion in offshore assets, and now Diego Garcia's reversionary title. Alliance du Changement won 60 of 62 seats in November 2024. The Chagos treaty was signed October 2024. Mauritius is repositioning as Africa's blue finance and policy laboratory through 2030.
Mauritius enters 2026 with three structural breaks running in parallel. The Alliance du Changement coalition led by Navin Ramgoolam swept the November 10, 2024 general election with 60 of 62 directly elected seats, ending three decades of MSM dominance under Pravind Jugnauth. The October 3, 2024 political agreement with the United Kingdom...
Spain 2026: The Housing and Tourism Vise on a Minority Government
Spain is the euro area growth leader, yet rents in Madrid and Barcelona are running 13 percent above last year, the Vivienda Law's rent caps have been blocked across two thirds of the territory, and Junts per Catalunya has pulled the plug on Sanchez's working majority.
Spain closed 2024 with real GDP growth of 3.2 percent, against 0.5 percent for the euro area, 94 million international tourist arrivals, and a foreign-born driven population gain of 1.1 million. The headline is enviable. Underneath, the Banco de Espana IPVR shows house prices up 11 percent year on year, Idealista records rent growth of 13...
Sri Lanka After Restructuring: The Post Default Trajectory in 2026
Eighteen months after the ISB exchange and fourteen months into the Dissanayake government, the IMF program is delivering reserves and disinflation, but the medium term debt arithmetic still depends on tourism, tax effort, and a credible parastatal restructuring.
Sri Lanka is the closest case to a completed sovereign restructuring on the post pandemic frontier. The April 2022 default has been resolved through a 48 month IMF Extended Fund Facility approved in March 2023, a Domestic Debt Optimisation completed in September 2023, an Official Creditor Committee deal with Paris Club plus India and Hung...