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Argentina under Milei: from currency competition to where dollarization actually lands
By April 2026, the Milei program has delivered fiscal surplus and disinflation, but the path from currency competition to formal dollarization remains capital constrained, politically contested, and contingent on the IMF program holding through the midterms.
President Milei begins his third year with the strongest fiscal anchor Argentina has produced in two decades, a unified peso, and CCL/MEP spreads under 4 percent. Yet the dollarization promise that defined his 2023 campaign now sits inside a more pragmatic frame: currency competition, BCRA balance sheet repair, and a $20 billion IMF progr...
Argentina at Year Two: The Milei Stabilization After the IMF Pivot and the 2025 Midterm
Twenty-eight months in, the Milei program has produced a primary surplus, single-digit monthly inflation, a lifted FX cepo with reserves near 23 billion dollars, and an enlarged La Libertad Avanza caucus after the October 2025 midterm. The next leg turns on dollar-bond compression, Vaca Muerta export ramp, and the political bandwidth to shift the cepo lift from controlled float into full convertibility before 2027.
Javier Milei was inaugurated December 10, 2023 with monthly headline inflation at 25.5 percent, a primary fiscal deficit near 3.0 percent of GDP, and BCRA net reserves close to negative 11 billion dollars. By April 2026 the picture has inverted across every dimension that matters to a sovereign creditor or peso liability holder. The 2024 ...