Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
The 2026 climate finance gap: what Paris commitments require versus what is flowing
Pledged ambition has outpaced delivered capital, leaving a gap that defines the next decade of energy and adaptation strategy. The arithmetic of net zero now hinges on which 2026 to 2030 trajectory takes hold.
Updated nationally determined contributions point toward a 1.7 to 1.9 degree Celsius pathway, yet the implied investment runway, anchored by the IEA World Energy Outlook 2024 net zero scenario, requires global clean energy and adaptation spend to roughly double from current levels by 2030. Public concessional flows are running below the l...
Post-COP30 Belem 2026: NDC Trajectory, Amazon Fund, and the Forest Finance Reset
Five months after the gavel fell in Belem, the Promethean and Ceres practices assess what the conference actually delivered for tropical forest finance, NDC ambition, and the carbon market architecture taking shape across 2026 to 2028.
COP30 in Belem closed in November 2025 with a partial Belem Accord, an operational Tropical Forest Forever Facility framework, and a new generation of NDCs covering roughly 78 percent of global emissions. The package was incremental rather than transformational, but it locked in three things our clients need to plan around: a credible Bra...
COP31 and the climate finance gap: from Belem's USD 300 billion floor to a working Article 6 market
COP30 in Belem closed with a New Collective Quantified Goal of USD 300 billion per year by 2035, roughly a quarter of the African Group ask. The 2026 host fight between Australia and Turkey, the first ITMO trades under Article 6.2 and 6.4, and the slow walk of the Loss and Damage Fund will define whether the Paris architecture remains operative through the second NDC cycle.
The COP30 Mutirao political package agreed in Belem on November 21, 2025 delivered a New Collective Quantified Goal of USD 300 billion per year by 2035, with a stretch target of USD 1.3 trillion that defers the question of who pays. Climate Policy Initiative tracked USD 1.46 trillion in total climate finance flows for 2022, but mitigation...