Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
The American Car Squeeze: Affordability, Delinquency, and the Auto Credit Cycle
New vehicle average transaction prices held near 48,000 dollars through 2024 and 2025, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index settled around 205 after retracing from its 280 peak, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York logged the highest auto loan transition into serious delinquency since the 2010 vintage. Section 232 tariffs on Mexican and Canadian autos and a 20 percent jump in auto insurance CPI compounded the affordability problem. The credit cycle now hinges on subprime ABS performance, repossession economics, and the policy response to a household stretched on the second-largest line item after housing.
American household balance sheets now carry 1.66 trillion dollars of auto loan debt, the second-largest non-housing consumer credit line on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Cox Automotive reported a new vehicle average transaction price of 48,397 dollars in December 2024, roughly 12 perce...
US Student Loans After the Pause: SAVE Unwound, Project 2025 Reforms, and the 2026 Repayment Reset
Federal student loans returned to billing in October 2023 after a 3.5 year COVID pause. The 12 month on ramp shielded credit reports through September 2024. Then SAVE was enjoined, then struck down. By Q1 2025, 12.6 percent of borrowers in repayment were 90 plus days delinquent, the worst delinquency print in the history of the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report. The 2026 reset is not a return to 2019. It is a rewrite.
The federal student loan portfolio sits at roughly 1.65 trillion dollars across about 43 million borrowers as of Q4 2024, per Federal Student Aid Data Center quarterly reports. Payments resumed in October 2023 after a pause that ran from March 2020 through September 2023, and the Biden Department of Education layered a 12 month on ramp th...