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Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Saudi Aramco capex trajectory 2026: oil, gas, downstream, and the Vision 2030 reset
Aramco's revised capital plan reflects a new equilibrium between oil maintenance, gas growth, and petrochemicals integration as Riyadh recalibrates Vision 2030 ambitions against a softer crude price deck.
Saudi Aramco enters 2026 with a capex envelope reshaped by the January 2024 directive to halt expansion of maximum sustainable capacity at 12 million barrels per day, down from the prior 13 mbd target. The reallocation channels roughly 48 to 58 billion dollars per year into upstream maintenance, the Jafurah unconventional gas megaproject,...
Saudi Arabia 2026: the Vision 2030 reset, the PIF reprioritization, and the budget arithmetic at USD 78 Brent
Nine years into Vision 2030, Riyadh is sequencing rather than retreating. PIF holds approximately USD 940 billion in assets, the 2025 budget commits SAR 1.342 trillion in expenditure, and the IMF estimates the fiscal breakeven oil price at USD 96 per barrel. The Line has been scoped down from 105 miles to 1.5 miles by 2030. The question is no longer whether the giga projects deliver in full, but which ones survive the reset.
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 is at the nine year mark, and the official posture has shifted from maximalist scope to disciplined sequencing. The Public Investment Fund reported total assets under management of approximately USD 940 billion at end 2024, against the original 2030 target of USD 2 trillion that has effectively been deferred. Th...