Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Mozambique 2026: Frelimo's contested mandate, the Cabo Delgado stabilization, and the LNG restart
Daniel Chapo's Frelimo continuity rests on a CNE result the streets do not believe, a March 2025 reconciliation with Venancio Mondlane, a Rwandan force holding Cabo Delgado, and a TotalEnergies LNG restart that separates fiscal solvency from a Tuna Bond replay.
Mozambique's October 9, 2024 general election produced the most contested result since multiparty politics began in 1994. The Comissao Nacional de Eleicoes proclaimed Frelimo's Daniel Chapo at 70.7 percent against Venancio Mondlane (Podemos) at 20.3 percent, while the Centro de Integridade Publica parallel tally and the Mais Integridade c...
Namibia's Orange Basin Awakens, Venus FID Slips to 2026 to 2027
Three operators (TotalEnergies, Shell, Galp) have outlined more than 15 billion barrels of recoverable resource off Namibia, yet Venus FID is now 2026 to 2027. Project economics, fiscal terms, and political continuity will decide first oil.
Between January 2022 and April 2024, three operators converted Namibia's Orange Basin from frontier prospect into one of the largest oil discoveries of the decade. TotalEnergies booked 2 to 3 billion barrels recoverable at Venus (Block 2913B), Shell logged Graff, La Rona, Jonker, Lesedi, and Mopane on Block 2913A, and Galp announced Mopan...
Papua New Guinea LNG and the Pacific Island Pivot, 2026
Two FIDs (Papua LNG taken September 2024, PNG LNG Train 3 expected 2026 to 2027) and a contested Pacific security architecture rewrite the Coral Sea, Solomon, and Polynesian risk map for global energy and defense capital.
Papua New Guinea is on the cusp of doubling LNG output. The TotalEnergies led Papua LNG project (Elk Antelope, 5.4 mtpa, capex around USD 13 billion) reached FID in September 2024 with Santos, Kumul Petroleum, and JX Nippon. The ExxonMobil led PNG LNG Train 3, slipped many times since 2014, is targeting FID in 2026 or 2027 with P'nyang ga...
Tanzania LNG and the East African Gas Decade
The May 2024 Tanzania LNG Host Government Agreement restarted a decade of stalled progress at Lindi, but the USD 42 billion FID has slipped into 2026 and 2027. Mozambique is restarting in parallel, and East African gas is shifting from option value to physical supply.
East Africa is shifting from stranded gas headlines to two anchor liquefaction complexes under active development. Tanzania signed the Host Government Agreement at State House in May 2024 with Equinor, Shell, and TPDC, ending a decade of stalled negotiation under Magufuli era resource nationalism. The integrated USD 42 billion Lindi LNG p...