Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
DRC, Rwanda, and the M23 Conflict in 2026: East Congo Mineral Economics, Sanctions Geometry, and Battery Supply Chain Exposure
M23 captured Goma in January 2025 and Bukavu in March 2025, with the UN Group of Experts documenting roughly 4,000 Rwanda Defence Force personnel embedded with the militia. The DRC produces about 73 percent of mined cobalt and roughly 40 percent of mined tantalum globally, per USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. The conflict, the OFAC and EU Council sanctions cycle, and the Trump March 2025 minerals for security framework now sit on top of the EV battery supply chain.
The Mouvement du 23 Mars resumed operations in November 2021 in North Kivu after a nine year dormancy following its 2013 defeat. By late January 2025 M23 had taken Goma, capital of North Kivu and a city of roughly two million, and on February 16, 2025 it captured Bukavu, capital of South Kivu. The Forces Armees de la Republique Democratiq...
Greenland 2026: rare earths, US-EU competition, and the economics of self-determination
After the Demokraatit win in March 2025 and a year of explicit US acquisition rhetoric, Nuuk is renegotiating the price of every barrel of mineral rent. The question is no longer whether Greenland's critical minerals enter the Atlantic supply chain, but on whose terms, in whose currency, and against which sovereignty trade.
Greenland is a 56,865 person polity (Statistics Greenland, January 2024) sitting on roughly 1.5 million tonnes of identified rare earth oxide resources (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025), the second largest known accessible deposit outside China after Mountain Pass. Per capita GDP was DKK 480,000, total nominal GDP USD 3.4 billion in...