Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Container Shipping in 2026: Newbuild Glut Meets Geopolitical Reroute
Red Sea closure has propped up rates that the largest orderbook in a decade should otherwise have crushed. Alliance reshuffling, IMO carbon rules, and the prospect of Suez normalization will define which carriers survive the next downcycle.
Container shipping enters 2026 with two opposing forces in equilibrium. The largest newbuild orderbook since 2008 is delivering roughly 30 percent of fleet capacity across 2024 to 2026, front-loaded in 2024 and 2025. Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea have meanwhile kept the bulk of Asia to Europe traffic on the Cape of Good Hope rout...
Greek Tourism Overflow and Shipping Tax Windfall: Pricing the 2026 Crossroads
Greece's 2026 macro crossroads across tourism capacity, shipping tax, debt dynamics, and euro-area risk pricing.
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Maritime decarbonization 2026: ammonia and methanol after the IMO net zero framework
MEPC 83 set a global fuel intensity charge starting USD 100 per tonne CO2 equivalent in 2027, with EU FuelEU layered on top. The orderbook reads 17 percent LNG, 6 percent methanol, 3 percent ammonia. Maersk and CMA CGM have made opposite bets.
The IMO adopted the GHG net zero framework at MEPC 83 in April 2025, mandatory from January 1, 2027. It sets a USD 100 per tonne CO2 equivalent fuel intensity charge above the base trajectory and a USD 380 per tonne Direct Compliance Unit penalty on the stringent gap, the first universal carbon price on shipping. EU FuelEU Maritime, in fo...