Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Mexico's Security Drag: What Cartel Economics Cost the Bajio, Nearshoring, and the IEEPA Negotiation
Cartel-related extortion, fuel theft, avocado mafia, and intimidation now cost Mexican GDP a documented 2.0 to 4.0 percent per year. Sheinbaum's security strategy and Trump's IEEPA fentanyl framing have repriced the nearshoring premium.
Mexico's organized crime economy is no longer a public-safety question alone. INEGI's 2024 National Survey of Victimization and Public Safety Perception (ENVIPE) puts the cost of crime to Mexican households at MXN 274 billion in 2023, equivalent to 1.45 percent of GDP. Banxico, IMF Article IV Mexico, and CIDE working papers separately est...
Mexico's Judicial Reset: Sheinbaum, Plan C, and the Rule of Law Premium
Claudia Sheinbaum took office on October 1, 2024 with a Morena supermajority and a constitutional amendment converting all 7,000 federal judges into elected officials. The first judicial elections in June 2025 closed with 13 percent turnout and benches dominated by Morena-aligned candidates. The peso has carried an extra 200 basis points of risk premium, FDI announcements have been reshuffled, and the July 2026 USMCA review is now the binding constraint on Mexico's institutional perimeter.
Claudia Sheinbaum won the June 2, 2024 presidential election with 35.9 million votes and a 59.8 percent share, the largest mandate in modern Mexican democracy. She inherited from Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador a parliamentary configuration that delivered Morena and allies a qualified two-thirds majority in the Chamber of Deputies and 86 of 1...
Mexico in 2026: Nearshoring, the USMCA Review, and the Tariff Shock Absorber
Eighteen months into the Sheinbaum administration, nearshoring has stopped being a press-release category and has become a contested allocation problem. Plan Mexico, the July 2026 USMCA review, and a Trump tariff regime that flicks on and off have compressed the planning horizon for OEMs, contract manufacturers, and the peso curve into rolling six-week windows.
Claudia Sheinbaum was inaugurated on October 1, 2024, and unveiled Plan Mexico in January 2025 as an industrial policy framework anchored on a Fideicomiso for nearshoring incentives, regional content thresholds, and a sharper screen on Chinese investment. Foreign direct investment closed 2024 at 36.87 billion dollars per Secretaria de Eco...
Pemex 2026: a 1.5 mbpd national champion, a USD 99.5 billion debt stack, and Sheinbaum's energy sovereignty bet
Mexico's national oil company has fallen from a 3.4 mbpd peak in 2004 to 1.50 mbpd in 2024, accumulated USD 99.5 billion of financial debt, and absorbed roughly USD 20 to 30 billion of federal transfers per year. President Sheinbaum inherits a USD 30 billion maturity wall through 2027, a refining system running at 80 percent utilization, and a constitutional commitment to zero net imports of motor fuels by 2030.
Pemex remains the most indebted national oil company in the world, with USD 99.5 billion of financial debt at year end 2024 (Form 20-F, April 2025) and a maturity profile that requires roughly USD 30 billion of refinancings between 2025 and 2027. Crude production fell to 1.50 million barrels per day in 2024, against 1.71 mbpd in 2023 and ...
Mexico Under Sheinbaum: Year One and the T-MEC Cliff
Plan Mexico, the 2026 USMCA review, judicial reform fallout, and Pemex's 97 billion dollar debt stack converge on a single fiscal year.
Claudia Sheinbaum took office on October 1, 2024 with a Morena supermajority in the lower house, a two-thirds Senate, and an inherited fiscal deficit of 5.9 percent of GDP, the widest non-pandemic gap since the 1980s. Her first year traded the AMLO posture of austerity-plus-flagships for an explicit industrial program branded Plan Mexico,...
USMCA Article 34.7: The July 2026 Review and the Renegotiation Already Underway
The first six-year joint review opens July 2026. Trump's tariff threats, Sheinbaum's Plan Mexico, automotive rules of origin, and a Mexico-now-largest US trade partner make this the most consequential trilateral negotiation since 1994.
USMCA Article 34.7 mandates a joint review six years after entry into force. The first review opens July 2026. Failure of all three parties to affirm continuation triggers a 16 year sunset window. The 2024 to 2025 backdrop has shifted the negotiation: US merchandise trade with Mexico reached USD 798 billion in 2024 per the US Census Burea...