Macro-financial risk
2026-04-26
11 min read
10 sources
Nigeria Year Three Under Tinubu: Reform Cohort, Political Economy, and the 2027 Runway
Three years after the May 2023 inauguration, the Tinubu reform cohort has rebuilt the macro arithmetic that Emefiele governance hollowed out. The political economy of holding the reforms through 2027 is the harder problem.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office on 29 May 2023 and within fourteen days had ended the petroleum motor spirit subsidy and instructed the Central Bank to collapse the multi-window foreign exchange regime. The naira moved from 460 per dollar to a NAFEM rate that printed near 1,520 in March 2026, and headline inflation peaked at 34.80 percent i...