Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Iran 2026: Oil Exports Under Sanctions, China Shadow Flows, Fiscal Arithmetic
Tehran is exporting more crude than at any point since 2018, but the gap between gross barrels lifted and net dollars repatriated has rarely been wider. We map the shadow fleet, OFAC enforcement cycles, and three scenarios for 2026 to 2027.
Iran is shipping roughly 1.65 to 1.80 million barrels per day of crude and condensate in early 2026, almost all of it to Chinese independent refiners via a shadow fleet of 350 plus tankers using ship-to-ship transfers off Malaysia, Singapore, and increasingly the Sea of Oman. Discounts to Brent have widened from 8 dollars per barrel in 20...
Iran 2026: snapback aftermath, the 60 percent stockpile, and the second maximum pressure cycle
The E3 triggered the JCPOA snapback in September 2025, restoring six United Nations Security Council resolutions on Iran. The IAEA verified 274.6 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium before camera dismantlement. Trump's NSPM 2 has reactivated maximum pressure on roughly 1.6 to 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude exports flowing primarily to Chinese teapot refiners.
On September 27, 2025, snapback under United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 paragraph 11 entered into force after the United Kingdom, France, and Germany invoked the dispute resolution mechanism on August 28. Six pre 2015 UN sanctions resolutions returned, ending the JCPOA framework de jure. The IAEA Director General report GOV/...
Stablecoin demand for US Treasuries in 2026: bills, repo, and the GENIUS Act perimeter
GENIUS Act implementation, Tether and Circle reserve attestations, and Treasury official statements have made dollar stablecoins a structural buyer of short bills. We size the bid, decompose maturity holdings, and stress test the redemption channel.
Aggregate dollar stablecoin supply has crossed roughly 220 billion in early 2026, with reserves now overwhelmingly concentrated in Treasury bills inside three months and overnight repo collateralized by Treasuries. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, signed into law in July 2025, locked in a 1:1 cash...
Trinidad and Venezuela 2026: the Dragon license, Atlantic LNG idle trains, and Caribbean gas arbitrage
Atlantic LNG runs at 9.0 mtpa against 14.8 mtpa nameplate, Train 1 has been idle since end 2020, and the four cross border fields with Venezuela are the only unsanctioned upside. The Dragon, Cocuina, and Manakin Cocuina licenses, OFAC General License 41 and 41A, and the disputed July 2024 Maduro reelection together set the gas balance for the eastern Caribbean through 2028.
Trinidad and Tobago's gas economy is contracting in slow motion. Marketed gas production peaked near 4.0 billion cubic feet per day in 2010 and ran at 2.55 Bcf/d in 2024, a 36 percent drawdown that has stranded one of the four Atlantic LNG trains since end 2020 and capped national LNG output at 9.0 million tonnes per annum against a 14.8 ...