Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Mexico's Judicial Reset: Sheinbaum, Plan C, and the Rule of Law Premium
Claudia Sheinbaum took office on October 1, 2024 with a Morena supermajority and a constitutional amendment converting all 7,000 federal judges into elected officials. The first judicial elections in June 2025 closed with 13 percent turnout and benches dominated by Morena-aligned candidates. The peso has carried an extra 200 basis points of risk premium, FDI announcements have been reshuffled, and the July 2026 USMCA review is now the binding constraint on Mexico's institutional perimeter.
Claudia Sheinbaum won the June 2, 2024 presidential election with 35.9 million votes and a 59.8 percent share, the largest mandate in modern Mexican democracy. She inherited from Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador a parliamentary configuration that delivered Morena and allies a qualified two-thirds majority in the Chamber of Deputies and 86 of 1...
Pemex 2026: a 1.5 mbpd national champion, a USD 99.5 billion debt stack, and Sheinbaum's energy sovereignty bet
Mexico's national oil company has fallen from a 3.4 mbpd peak in 2004 to 1.50 mbpd in 2024, accumulated USD 99.5 billion of financial debt, and absorbed roughly USD 20 to 30 billion of federal transfers per year. President Sheinbaum inherits a USD 30 billion maturity wall through 2027, a refining system running at 80 percent utilization, and a constitutional commitment to zero net imports of motor fuels by 2030.
Pemex remains the most indebted national oil company in the world, with USD 99.5 billion of financial debt at year end 2024 (Form 20-F, April 2025) and a maturity profile that requires roughly USD 30 billion of refinancings between 2025 and 2027. Crude production fell to 1.50 million barrels per day in 2024, against 1.71 mbpd in 2023 and ...
Mexico Under Sheinbaum: Year One and the T-MEC Cliff
Plan Mexico, the 2026 USMCA review, judicial reform fallout, and Pemex's 97 billion dollar debt stack converge on a single fiscal year.
Claudia Sheinbaum took office on October 1, 2024 with a Morena supermajority in the lower house, a two-thirds Senate, and an inherited fiscal deficit of 5.9 percent of GDP, the widest non-pandemic gap since the 1980s. Her first year traded the AMLO posture of austerity-plus-flagships for an explicit industrial program branded Plan Mexico,...