Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Argentina under Milei: from currency competition to where dollarization actually lands
By April 2026, the Milei program has delivered fiscal surplus and disinflation, but the path from currency competition to formal dollarization remains capital constrained, politically contested, and contingent on the IMF program holding through the midterms.
President Milei begins his third year with the strongest fiscal anchor Argentina has produced in two decades, a unified peso, and CCL/MEP spreads under 4 percent. Yet the dollarization promise that defined his 2023 campaign now sits inside a more pragmatic frame: currency competition, BCRA balance sheet repair, and a $20 billion IMF progr...
Brazil fiscal trajectory 2026: the framework, the markets, and the political constraint
Brazil enters 2026 with a credible monetary anchor but a fiscal framework that markets are testing in real time. The next eighteen months will determine whether the Arcabouco holds or whether the curve forces an earlier reckoning.
Brazil heads into the second quarter of 2026 with gross general government debt approaching 81 percent of GDP, a primary deficit that has narrowed but not closed, and a Selic rate held at restrictive levels by a Banco Central do Brasil intent on protecting hard-won inflation gains. The Arcabouco Fiscal, the spending growth rule that repla...
India Capex Spend Trajectory 2026: Government, Private, and FDI in One Frame
India's investment-to-GDP ratio is climbing back toward 34 percent, but the composition behind the headline determines whether the cycle broadens or stalls.
India's capex story in 2026 is one of three engines pulling at different speeds. Union Budget capital outlay has nearly tripled since FY20, state capex is recovering after the FY24 election lull, and central public sector enterprises are being nudged to front-load investment. Private capex is finally turning, with ASCB credit to industry ...
Japan in 2026: BoJ Normalization, JGB Curve Dynamics, Yen Carry Trade Math
After three decades of unconventional policy, the Bank of Japan is steering rates higher into a system that was architected for zero. The carry trade, the JGB curve, and global duration are all repricing in real time.
Japan in 2026 sits at the most consequential policy inflection of the post bubble era. With the policy rate at 0.75 percent and the BoJ telegraphing a path toward 1.25 percent by mid 2027, the long end of the JGB curve has steepened sharply, the 30 year yield is testing 2.85 percent, and life insurers, GPIF, and global carry traders are a...
Nigeria 2026: Oil Receipts, Naira Convergence, and the Fiscal Arithmetic
Three years after the June 2023 naira unification and the simultaneous removal of the PMS subsidy, Nigeria enters 2026 with a fragile fiscal recovery whose durability depends on Brent staying above the mid-seventies and on the CBN holding its nerve at the policy rate.
Nigeria's 2026 macro picture is the first in a decade where the headline numbers on debt service, oil receipts, and the FX premium can be discussed with a straight face. The June 2023 naira unification and the contemporaneous PMS subsidy withdrawal have, in combination, restored a measure of fiscal arithmetic that the prior decade lacked....
Pakistan in 2026: IMF Program Economics Under Fiscal Stress
Pakistan's 37 month Extended Fund Facility is buying breathing room, but the underlying arithmetic of debt service, energy losses, and rollover concentration leaves little margin for political slippage.
Pakistan enters the back half of 2026 with an active IMF Extended Fund Facility, gross reserves stabilized near three months of imports, and headline inflation finally inside single digits. Beneath that veneer the picture is more brittle. Debt service consumes more than half of federal revenue, the energy sector continues to leak through ...