Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Argentina Year Two: Milei's Fiscal Anchor and the Disinflation Bet
Fifteen months in, the Milei administration has delivered a primary surplus, crushed monthly inflation from 25.5 percent to roughly 2.5 percent, and pulled in a fresh IMF Extended Fund Facility. The remaining bet is sequencing: lift the cepo without losing the peso, and turn Vaca Muerta plus the lithium triangle into a reserve story that survives the 2027 cycle.
Javier Milei took office on December 10, 2023, with a primary fiscal deficit of roughly 3 percent of GDP, monthly headline inflation of 25.5 percent in December 2023, and net BCRA reserves near minus 11 billion dollars. Fifteen months later the picture has inverted. The 2024 primary surplus closed at 1.8 percent of GDP, the first full-yea...
Reform UK in 2026: From Five Seats to Polling Lead, and the Reshaping of British Politics
Reform UK won five seats and 14.3 percent of the vote in July 2024. By the first quarter of 2026 it leads national polling, controls ten English councils, and has drained Conservative donors and members at speed. The arithmetic of British politics is being rewritten.
Reform UK enters the second year of the 2024 parliament as the United Kingdom's leading party in published voting intention. The 4 July 2024 election delivered five seats on a 14.3 percent vote share, with second places in 98 constituencies. By January 2026 YouGov, More in Common, and Find Out Now placed Reform on 25 to 29 percent, ahead ...
Vietnam's 14th Party Congress: To Lam, Bamboo Diplomacy, and the Pricing of Political Continuity
The January 2027 14th National Congress will ratify a leadership transition already executed under fire. Investors should price To Lam's consolidation, the Blazing Furnace's reach into the Politburo, and a 22 to 17 ministry restructuring as one integrated macro signal.
Nguyen Phu Trong's death on 19 July 2024 ended the longest General Secretaryship since reunification and triggered the most compressed succession in Vietnamese Communist Party history. By 3 August 2024 To Lam, the Minister of Public Security who had run the Blazing Furnace anti-corruption campaign, held the General Secretaryship outright....