Energy and transition economics
2026-04-26
11 minute read
16 sources
Sustainable aviation fuel 2026: the mandate decade, CORSIA Phase 2, and the HEFA bottleneck
Production sits at roughly 1 million tonnes against a 360 million tonne jet fuel market, yet ReFuelEU, the UK SAF Mandate, US Section 45Z, and CORSIA Phase 2 have anchored a five year compliance window that pulls SAF from voluntary corporate procurement into binding national obligation. Refiners, airlines, OEMs, and policymakers must now triage between mature HEFA, fast scaling alcohol to jet, and structurally expensive power to liquid.
IATA pegged 2024 SAF production at approximately 1 million tonnes, roughly 0.3 percent of the 360 million tonnes of jet fuel consumed by commercial aviation, with HEFA via used cooking oil and animal fats accounting for around 85 percent of supply. The mandate stack is now binding: ReFuelEU Aviation requires 2 percent SAF blending in EU a...