Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Container shipping 2026: the newbuild glut, the Red Sea reroute, and the tariff stack
A 31.6 million TEU fleet is taking record deliveries into a market still pulled long by the Cape of Good Hope detour and reshaped by Trump 2.0 tariffs and the Section 301 China shipbuilding remedy. We map fleet, rates, alliance reset, and the 2026 to 2028 corridor.
Clarksons placed the global container fleet at about 31.6 million TEU at end 2024 with an orderbook running at roughly 24 percent of fleet, the highest cover since 2008. Calendar 2024 deliveries hit a record 2.9 million TEU and 2025 is expected near 2.0 million TEU. Yet effective supply has been absorbed by the Red Sea diversion: Suez tra...
Maritime decarbonization 2026: ammonia and methanol after the IMO net zero framework
MEPC 83 set a global fuel intensity charge starting USD 100 per tonne CO2 equivalent in 2027, with EU FuelEU layered on top. The orderbook reads 17 percent LNG, 6 percent methanol, 3 percent ammonia. Maersk and CMA CGM have made opposite bets.
The IMO adopted the GHG net zero framework at MEPC 83 in April 2025, mandatory from January 1, 2027. It sets a USD 100 per tonne CO2 equivalent fuel intensity charge above the base trajectory and a USD 380 per tonne Direct Compliance Unit penalty on the stringent gap, the first universal carbon price on shipping. EU FuelEU Maritime, in fo...