Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Israel 2026: The Fiscal-Political Reset After Gaza, Lebanon, and the Iran Strikes
The Bank of Israel pegs cumulative direct war costs near 250 billion shekels, the deficit ran at 6.9 percent of GDP in 2024, and three rating agencies have downgraded Israeli sovereign credit. The 2026 question is whether the macro stabilization holds while reconstruction, settlement spending, and the legal cases at The Hague run in parallel.
Israel ended its multi-front war cycle with a January 2025 Gaza ceasefire and a November 2024 Lebanon ceasefire, after roughly fifteen months of combat that mobilized 360,000 reservists at peak, drove GDP down 19.4 percent annualized in the fourth quarter of 2023, and forced the central government deficit to 6.9 percent of GDP in 2024. Th...
South Sudan 2026: oil restart, fiscal collapse, and post conflict risk
The February 2024 rupture of the Greater Nile Pipeline through war torn Sudan cut Juba's oil revenue by roughly two thirds. The 2026 restart is a stabilization wager priced against pipeline risk, election delay, and a currency that has lost more than ninety percent of its dollar value.
South Sudan entered 2026 with crude production around 150,000 barrels per day, less than half of the 2011 secession peak of 350,000 bpd, after the Sudan civil war severed exports of Dar Blend and Nile Blend through the pipeline corridor to Port Sudan. Oil financed roughly ninety percent of government revenue before the shock, and the Worl...