Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems: Reintegration Under a 38 a Month Cap
The Alaska 1282 door plug, a 53 day machinist strike, an FAA production cap, and a 4.7 billion dollar Spirit reabsorption have reset Boeing's operating model. The 737 MAX return to 50 a month and the 787 climb out of Charleston now define commercial aerospace cash through 2027.
On 5 January 2024 the mid exit door plug on Alaska Airlines flight 1282, a 737 MAX 9 delivered eight weeks earlier, separated from the fuselage at 16,000 feet over Portland. The NTSB investigation traced the loss to four missing retention bolts at Boeing's Renton final assembly line, a fuselage built by Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita and s...
India Aviation 2026: Duopoly, Order Book, and the Capacity Bottleneck
IndiGo and the Tata Air India group together carry close to nine in every ten domestic seats in India, while a fleet of 1,200 aircraft on order, a Pratt and Whitney powder metal grounding, and an airport build led by Adani and GMR set the operating envelope through fiscal 2027.
India crossed 161 million domestic air passengers in calendar 2024, up 16 percent year on year, becoming the third largest domestic market in the world after the United States and China. The structure of that market is no longer fragmented. IndiGo held 62 percent share in April 2025 according to DGCA monthly traffic data, the Tata owned A...
Sustainable aviation fuel 2026: the mandate decade, CORSIA Phase 2, and the HEFA bottleneck
Production sits at roughly 1 million tonnes against a 360 million tonne jet fuel market, yet ReFuelEU, the UK SAF Mandate, US Section 45Z, and CORSIA Phase 2 have anchored a five year compliance window that pulls SAF from voluntary corporate procurement into binding national obligation. Refiners, airlines, OEMs, and policymakers must now triage between mature HEFA, fast scaling alcohol to jet, and structurally expensive power to liquid.
IATA pegged 2024 SAF production at approximately 1 million tonnes, roughly 0.3 percent of the 360 million tonnes of jet fuel consumed by commercial aviation, with HEFA via used cooking oil and animal fats accounting for around 85 percent of supply. The mandate stack is now binding: ReFuelEU Aviation requires 2 percent SAF blending in EU a...
Sustainable Aviation Fuel in 2026: A Mandate Wall Without a Molecule Cushion
ReFuelEU is live, the UK SAF mandate ratchets, and ICAO CORSIA Phase II turns mandatory in 2027. Global SAF supply remains roughly 0.3 percent of jet fuel demand, and HEFA feedstock is already binding.
Aviation entered 2026 facing the first compliance year of EU ReFuelEU obligations, a 2 percent SAF blend floor at all EU airports, and a parallel UK mandate climbing toward 10 percent by 2030. ICAO CORSIA Phase II becomes mandatory in January 2027 for all member states whose carriers fly international routes. Global SAF production is on t...