Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Bermuda Reinsurance Through 2026: Pillar Two, Cat Capacity, and the Florida Pivot
The world's largest reinsurance hub absorbed Helene, Milton, and the January 2025 LA wildfires, raised roughly 18 billion dollars of new Class 4 capital, and on January 1, 2025 began collecting a 15 percent corporate income tax to comply with OECD Pillar Two. The question for 2026 is whether the BMA's Solvency Capital Requirement framework, the Bermuda Triangle capital cycle, and a 50 billion dollar cat bond market can keep clearing US peak peril risk at acceptable margins after the tax wedge.
Bermuda is the central node of global property catastrophe reinsurance. The Bermuda Monetary Authority's 2024 statistical review reports gross premiums written by Bermuda commercial reinsurers above 230 billion dollars, with the island clearing roughly one third of global property and casualty reinsurance capacity and a majority of US pea...
Ireland's Corporation Tax Windfall and the Future Ireland Fund: Sovereign Savings Against a Concentrated Base
The 13.0 billion euro Apple State Aid disbursement and a 27.8 billion euro 2024 corporation tax take pushed Ireland's headline surplus to 25.0 billion euro, but the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council estimates that ten firms generate 56 percent of receipts. The Future Ireland Fund and the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund are the policy answer for the 2025 to 2035 window, and Pillar Two and US tariff risk are the live threats.
Ireland's exchequer collected 27.8 billion euro in corporation tax in 2024, equal to 33 percent of total tax revenue, with an additional 14.1 billion euro in Apple back taxes plus interest received in tranches under the Court of Justice of the European Union ruling in C-465/20 of September 10, 2024. The 2024 general government surplus rea...