Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Indonesia nickel 2026: Prabowo downstream, the HPAL ramp, and the FEOC corridor
Indonesia mined roughly 1.8 million tonnes of nickel in 2024, about half the world total, and now sets the global cost curve for both class one and class two. Prabowo, Bahlil, and Danantara have inherited a Chinese anchored downstream that has to clear the United States Inflation Reduction Act foreign entity of concern test and the European Union Critical Raw Materials Act on a 2026 to 2030 calendar.
United States Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries January 2025 placed Indonesian mined nickel at 1.8 million tonnes for 2024 against a global total of about 3.7 million, with reserves of 55 million tonnes. The 2014 Mineral and Coal Mining Law and Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation 11 of 2019 closed nickel ore ex...
IRA phase-out in 2026: how OBBA, FEOC, and the tariff stack reprice US clean energy capex
The One Big Beautiful Act and the FEOC perimeter have not killed the energy transition, they have repriced it. Investors who modeled flat 30 percent credits through 2032 are now solving for a moving target where battery and solar economics still clear, wind and EV demand do not, and project finance is sorted by who can document a Chinese-free supply chain.
The Inflation Reduction Act, signed August 16, 2022 with an initial Joint Committee on Taxation cost estimate of 369 billion US dollars over ten years, was rescored by the Congressional Budget Office in January 2025 at 1.4 to 1.7 trillion US dollars over the 2025 to 2034 window once uncapped credit uptake was modeled. That fiscal surface,...
Vietnam's EV and Battery Cluster Comes of Age: VinFast at Scale, the China Question, and the 46 Percent Tariff Cliff
Hanoi has assembled the most complete EV and battery supply chain in Southeast Asia outside of mainland China. The 2026 stress test is whether VinFast can profitably reach the United States while VinES, CATL, Gotion, Samsung SDI, and LG ES navigate Section 301 reciprocal tariffs, IRA Foreign Entity of Concern rules, and a tightening Power Master Plan VIII grid envelope.
Vietnam closed 2024 with real GDP growth of 7.09 percent, nominal GDP of roughly 462 billion US dollars, and realized FDI of 25.4 billion US dollars, the highest on record (General Statistics Office of Vietnam). The EV and battery cluster is the most visible expression of that capital. VinFast launched the VF3 mini in mid 2024, broke grou...