Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Albanese Second Term, Australia's Labor Reset and the Industrial Policy Pivot
Labor's May 2025 majority of 78 seats locks in Closing Loopholes, same job same pay, and a wage floor of AUD 24.10. Future Made in Australia ties wages, processing credits, and hydrogen subsidies into one enterprise plan.
Anthony Albanese returned to The Lodge on May 3, 2025 with 78 of 151 House seats and a 43.4 percent two party preferred share, the first Labor majority re election since 1966. The mandate consolidates a labor settlement that was fragile in the first term: Closing Loopholes Act 2024 same job same pay, the right to disconnect, casual conver...
Australia 2026: Housing Crunch, RBA Easing, and the Albanese Second Term
A re-elected Labor government, a slow RBA pivot, and a structurally undersupplied housing market frame the Australian macro-financial outlook through 2028.
Australia enters 2026 with the worst housing affordability on record, an RBA cash rate that has eased from a 4.35 percent peak to 3.85 percent in stages, and a Labor government returned with an enlarged majority on May 3, 2025. Albanese's second-term agenda combines supply-side commitments (1.2 million new homes by 2029), demand-side refo...
Australia and Indonesia 2026: nickel, IA-CEPA, and the Prabowo downstream bet
How Canberra and Jakarta are stitching together a critical minerals corridor under IA-CEPA, the 2024 comprehensive partnership, and the Prabowo 8 percent growth program.
Australia and Indonesia entered 2026 with the deepest formal trade and security architecture in the relationship's history, and a structural complementarity in critical minerals that neither government had fully priced. IA-CEPA passed its fifth anniversary in July 2025, the elevation to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and the August...
Australia 2026: Iron Ore Margins, the RBA Pivot, and the Housing Question
Iron ore prices have rolled off their long term average, lithium is in plant level retreat, the Reserve Bank is cutting into a still tight labor market, and a Sydney median above 1.6 million dollars is rewriting the political contract between retirees and renters.
Australia enters 2026 with two divergent stories. Iron ore on the Singapore Exchange platform is trading at 90 to 110 USD per tonne 62 percent Fe FOB China against a 120 USD long term average, while lithium spodumene operators have placed Greenbushes, Wodgina, Mt Holland, and the IGO Cosmos asset on care, curtailment, or production guidan...