Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Mauritania and Senegal 2026: GTA first cargo, BP and Kosmos cash flow, and the MSGBC basin's 50 Tcf moment
Greater Tortue Ahmeyim shipped its first LNG cargo in early 2025 after a five year delay. The next 18 months decide whether BP, Kosmos, Petrosen, and SMHPM can sanction Phase 2, whether Senegal's Faye and Sonko government renegotiates without breaking the project, and whether the MSGBC basin becomes Africa's third LNG axis after Nigeria and Mozambique.
The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project produced first gas in December 2024 and shipped its first LNG cargo in February 2025, anchoring a Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Conakry (MSGBC) basin holding more than 50 trillion cubic feet of contingent gas resource. BP holds 56 percent of GTA Phase 1, Kosmos Energy 27 percent, Petrosen 1...
Senegal under Faye and Sonko: the audit, the suspension, and the LNG window
Faye took the presidency on March 24, 2024, ten days after walking out of Cap Manuel prison. A Cour des Comptes audit has since rewritten Senegal's debt, the IMF Extended Credit Facility is suspended, and GTA LNG plus Sangomar oil are the only positive variables.
Bassirou Diomaye Faye won the March 24, 2024 first round with 54.28 percent per the Direction Generale des Elections, ten days after release from Cap Manuel prison alongside Pastef leader Ousmane Sonko, who became Prime Minister. Pastef then took 130 of 165 seats in the November 17, 2024 legislatives. The Cour des Comptes audit of Septemb...