Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Indian rice export policy in 2026: scenario propagation across importers
India sits at the fulcrum of the global rice market, and its 2026 export stance will set the price floor and security ceiling for a dozen import-dependent economies from Dhaka to Dakar.
India typically supplies close to 40 percent of internationally traded rice, so any shift in New Delhi's export policy reverberates through the budgets of poor households across South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Gulf. Since 2022, a sequence of Directorate General of Foreign Trade notifications has alternately curbed and reopened whe...
Japan Rice Crisis and the Gentan Unwind: Pricing, Politics, and the Reform Window of 2026
Empty supermarket shelves in August 2024, a 60 percent spot price surge, and a reserve release of 210,000 tonnes have shattered the post gentan equilibrium. Koizumi reform proposals, JA Zen Noh dominance, and the 2025 Lower House vote now define the policy contest.
Japan ran out of rice in late August 2024. Retail inventories at supermarket level fell to roughly 80,000 tonnes against a normal carry of about 200,000 tonnes, prompting MAFF to release 210,000 tonnes from the government emergency stockpile in September 2024 (the first such release since the program was created in 1995). Spot wholesale p...
Food-shock propagation in 2026: from CPI to political risk
A 25 percent move in wheat, rice, or sugar in 2026 reaches household budgets in eight import-dependent countries within 90 days, blows out fiscal subsidy lines within six months, and shows up as street pressure inside a year. The propagation chain is mappable.
A 2026 food shock has three plausible origins: a Black Sea wheat disruption, an Indian rice export ban extension, or a Brazilian and Indian sugar squeeze tied to ethanol diversion and cane yield loss. Each origin moves through the same five-stage chain: futures markets, freight and FX, landed import prices, domestic CPI, and fiscal subsid...