Macro-financial risk
2026-04-26
9 minute read
5 sources
Egypt 2026: IMF Program Post-Ras El-Hekma, EGP Regime, and the Energy Subsidy Reset
Two years after the March 2024 devaluation and the Ras El-Hekma capital injection, Egypt's adjustment is more credible but still incomplete. The next eighteen months will test whether the EGP float, subsidy normalization, and gas import economics can hold without renewed Gulf bridging.
Egypt entered 2026 with reserves rebuilt, an EGP that trades within a tighter band, and an enlarged IMF Extended Fund Facility that has now passed multiple reviews. Yet the structural picture remains fragile. Domestic gas output has slipped below 4.5 bcf/d, electricity and fuel subsidies have been raised in three rounds without yet elimin...