Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
China 2025 to 2026: The Fiscal-Monetary Pivot, the Tariff Shock, and the Five Percent Defense
Beijing has finally moved its fiscal stance, the People's Bank of China has rebuilt its rate corridor, and a 10 trillion yuan local debt swap is buying time for the provinces. The Trump tariff floor decides whether the package holds the 5 percent target or merely cushions a slower trajectory.
The March 2025 National People's Congress ratified a deficit target of 4 percent of GDP, the highest headline number in decades, alongside 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long Special Treasury issuance and a 10 trillion yuan local government refinancing program running through 2028. Premier Li Qiang's Two Sessions agenda paired this fiscal piv...
China LGFV Debt Resolution: The CNY 12 Trillion Swap, Property Overhang, and the 2026 Counter-Cyclical Test
On November 8, 2024 the National People's Congress Standing Committee endorsed a CNY 12 trillion frame to absorb local government hidden debt. Property investment fell 10.6 percent in 2024, Country Garden, Evergrande and Vanke moved through default and restructuring, and the PBoC cut the 7 day reverse repo rate to 1.5 percent. The 2026 question is whether the Three Year Action Plan converts a stock problem into a flow problem without monetizing it.
On November 8, 2024 NPC Standing Committee Chairman Zhao Leji and Finance Minister Lan Fo'an presented a CNY 12 trillion frame for local government hidden debt resolution: a CNY 6 trillion direct quota raised over 2024 to 2026, CNY 4 trillion of new local government special bond capacity repurposed toward debt swap, and a CNY 2 trillion l...
China property unwind in 2026: developer balance sheets, LGFV stress, and the household wealth drag
Two and a half years into the property correction, stabilization measures have arrested the worst tail risks but left China facing a multi-year deleveraging that is reshaping household consumption, local government finances, and the PBOC's structural toolkit.
China's property unwind entered a different phase in 2026. Evergrande's offshore liquidation has been working through Hong Kong courts since early 2024, Country Garden completed its dollar bond restructuring in late 2025, and Vanke, the surviving benchmark, is being kept current through a state shareholder lifeline rather than market acce...