Trade and tariff analytics
2026-04-26
12 minute read
18 sources
United States and China tariff trajectory through 2026: Section 301, the April reciprocal framework, and the Phase One legacy
The 2024 USTR four year review, the April 2025 reciprocal escalation, and the May 2025 de-escalation framework rebuilt the tariff stack on Chinese imports. We map the Section 301 architecture, the bilateral trade collapse, China retaliation, and the deal, freeze, escalate scenarios into 2026.
United States goods imports from China fell from a 2018 peak of 538 billion US dollars to 438 billion in 2024 (US Census Bureau), with the China share of total US goods imports compressed from 21.6 percent in 2017 to 13.4 percent in 2024. The Section 301 stack moved through three phases: the original 2018 to 2019 lists, the May 2024 USTR ...