Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Container shipping 2026: the newbuild glut, the Red Sea reroute, and the tariff stack
A 31.6 million TEU fleet is taking record deliveries into a market still pulled long by the Cape of Good Hope detour and reshaped by Trump 2.0 tariffs and the Section 301 China shipbuilding remedy. We map fleet, rates, alliance reset, and the 2026 to 2028 corridor.
Clarksons placed the global container fleet at about 31.6 million TEU at end 2024 with an orderbook running at roughly 24 percent of fleet, the highest cover since 2008. Calendar 2024 deliveries hit a record 2.9 million TEU and 2025 is expected near 2.0 million TEU. Yet effective supply has been absorbed by the Red Sea diversion: Suez tra...
Yemen, the Houthi blockade, and the Red Sea reroute economics of 2026
Suez revenue fell 63 percent in 2024, container traffic remains 55 percent below the late 2023 peak, and Lloyd's war risk premia stand at ten times pre attack levels. The Saudi roadmap, the Trump strikes, and Gulf restoration paths converge on one chokepoint.
Houthi anti shipping operations, sustained from November 2023 through the first quarter of 2026, have repriced the Bab el Mandeb and Suez transit corridor. Suez Canal Authority revenue fell to USD 880 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, against USD 2.4 billion in the same quarter of 2023, a 63 percent collapse. UKMTO and EU Aspides log...