Geoeconomic and policy analysis
2026-04-26
11 minute read
12 sources
Vietnam Under To Lam: 14th Congress, Ministry Mergers, and the FDI Test of 2026
General Secretary To Lam inherited the party in August 2024 with a mandate to streamline the state, defend the China plus one boom, and absorb a 46 percent reciprocal tariff threat. The 14th Party Congress in January 2026 will lock in his program at the same moment that VinFast, Foxconn, LG, and Pegatron decide whether Vietnam still clears the new landed cost math.
Vietnamese GDP grew 7.09 percent in 2024, the fastest print since 2018, on registered FDI of USD 38.2 billion and realised FDI of USD 25.4 billion (GSO, MPI). The Politburo confirmed To Lam as General Secretary on August 3, 2024 after Nguyen Phu Trong's death, and on March 1, 2025 collapsed the central government from 18 ministries plus 4...