Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Egypt at the Anchor: IMF EFF Year Two, the Ras El Hekma Cushion, and the Suez and Military Economy Reset
The March 6, 2024 IMF program expansion to USD 8 billion and the USD 35 billion Ras El Hekma sale to ADQ rebuilt Egypt's external buffer and broke the FX peg, but Suez Canal revenue collapsed 60 percent, debt service consumes more than half of revenue, and the military economy reform agenda remains the binding constraint.
On March 6, 2024 the IMF Executive Board augmented Egypt's Extended Fund Facility from USD 3 billion to USD 8 billion and the Central Bank of Egypt floated the pound, devaluing it from roughly 30 to 50 per US dollar in a single session. Two weeks earlier, on February 23, 2024, ADQ of Abu Dhabi committed USD 35 billion for the Ras El Hekma...
Nigeria 2026: Oil Receipts, Naira Convergence, and the Fiscal Arithmetic
Three years after the June 2023 naira unification and the simultaneous removal of the PMS subsidy, Nigeria enters 2026 with a fragile fiscal recovery whose durability depends on Brent staying above the mid-seventies and on the CBN holding its nerve at the policy rate.
Nigeria's 2026 macro picture is the first in a decade where the headline numbers on debt service, oil receipts, and the FX premium can be discussed with a straight face. The June 2023 naira unification and the contemporaneous PMS subsidy withdrawal have, in combination, restored a measure of fiscal arithmetic that the prior decade lacked....
Nigeria Year Three Under Tinubu: Reform Cohort, Political Economy, and the 2027 Runway
Three years after the May 2023 inauguration, the Tinubu reform cohort has rebuilt the macro arithmetic that Emefiele governance hollowed out. The political economy of holding the reforms through 2027 is the harder problem.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office on 29 May 2023 and within fourteen days had ended the petroleum motor spirit subsidy and instructed the Central Bank to collapse the multi-window foreign exchange regime. The naira moved from 460 per dollar to a NAFEM rate that printed near 1,520 in March 2026, and headline inflation peaked at 34.80 percent i...
Mongolia Copper: Oyu Tolgoi Underground as the 2026 Swing Factor
Oyu Tolgoi underground reaches commercial cadence in 2026, lifting Mongolia into the top tier of copper exporters and reshaping its fiscal, FX, and political risk profile.
Mongolia is on track to become a top five copper concentrate exporter by 2028, propelled by the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) underground panel cave operated by Rio Tinto. Sustained underground production began in March 2023 and is ramping toward a steady-state plateau of roughly 500,000 tonnes per year of contained copper from 2028 to 2036. For 2026, ...