Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
US labor market under AI substitution 2026: where it actually shows up first
Aggregate US labor data still looks healthy in early 2026, but beneath the headline numbers AI substitution is already reshaping hiring at the occupational level, with concentrated displacement in entry tier knowledge work and persistent complementarity in roles that bundle judgment, relationships, and accountability.
The 2026 US labor market presents a paradox. Unemployment hovers near 4.2 percent, participation has stabilized, and nominal wage growth still runs above 3.5 percent, yet hiring rates for early career knowledge workers have fallen sharply and posting volumes in customer support, content production, and junior software engineering have con...
Where AI productivity actually shows up: a sector decomposition
Aggregate US labor productivity grew 2.7 percent in 2024 and 1.9 percent annualized through Q4 2025. The AI signal in those numbers is real but narrow. It lives in five sectors and a dozen occupations, not in the headline.
Two years into broad enterprise AI deployment, the productivity question has moved from speculation to measurement. BLS labor productivity data show nonfarm business output per hour up 2.7 percent in 2024 and roughly 1.9 percent annualized through 2025, above the 2007 to 2019 trend of 1.4 percent. BEA multifactor productivity data lag by ...