Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
The Coffee Market Crisis 2024 to 2026: Arabica at Fifty Year Highs and the Reordering of Origin Risk
Brazilian arabica drought, Vietnamese robusta stress, and ICE futures at 4.40 dollars per pound have rewritten the cost stack for every roaster, retailer, and origin trader. The next 18 months separate the operators who repriced from those who absorbed.
Between mid 2024 and the first quarter of 2026, the global coffee complex experienced its most severe price dislocation since the 1977 frost shock. ICE arabica futures cleared 4.40 dollars per pound in late 2024, a fifty year nominal high, while London robusta traded near 4,800 dollars per tonne and the ICO Composite Indicator briefly hel...
Colombia 2026: Petro fiscal arithmetic and the post Bogota electoral year
Gustavo Petro enters his final budget cycle with a 57 percent debt path, a fragile fiscal rule, and an Ecopetrol production curve that no longer finances his social spending agenda. The 2026 municipal cycle and a recomposed Senate decide whether the cambio coalition holds.
Colombia under President Gustavo Petro reaches 2026 with the fiscal arithmetic critics warned about in 2022. Central government debt sits near 57 percent of GDP per Ministerio de Hacienda fiscal year 2024 figures, the Comite Autonomo de la Regla Fiscal (CARF) has issued repeated unfavorable opinions on the medium-term framework, and Ecope...