AI and compute economics
2026-04-25
13 minute read
10 sources
AI capex met the grid: when the megawatt curve breaks
Hyperscaler capital spending crossed 500 billion dollars across 2025 and 2026 while the average US interconnection wait sits above 4 years. The constraint is no longer chips. It is megawatts on a calendar.
AI infrastructure capex has cleared 500 billion dollars across 2025 and 2026 between the four hyperscalers, NVIDIA, Oracle, and the new wave of neoclouds. The chips are arriving. The grid is not. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab puts the active US interconnection queue above 2,600 gigawatts, with median wait times above 4 years and rising. ...