Defense and geopolitics
2026-04-26
14 min read
12 sources
Ecuador's Mano Dura at the Inflection: Noboa's Security Doctrine, Energy Squeeze, and the 2026 Outlook
President Daniel Noboa's internal armed conflict declaration, the April 2025 runoff mandate, and the homicide reversal from 47 to 31 per 100,000 reframe Ecuador as a Pacific cocaine choke point with stranded oil and hydropower fragility.
Ecuador moved from peripheral cocaine corridor to Pacific epicenter between 2017 and 2023, with the homicide rate climbing from 6 to 47 per 100,000 (Ministerio del Interior). On January 9, 2024, President Daniel Noboa decreed an internal armed conflict and designated 22 organized crime groups as terrorist actors, including Los Choneros, L...