Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
The AI advertising shock: how generative search is rewiring the 700 billion dollar attention economy
Google Search ad revenue ran 198 billion dollars in 2024, a 12 percent gain that masks a structural threat. ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Claude are bleeding off the high intent query layer, AI Overviews are eroding publisher click through, and a federal judge has ruled the search monopoly illegal. The next two years rewrite the unit economics of every ad funded business on the internet.
Digital advertising sits at roughly 700 billion dollars globally, and roughly half of that pool routes through one query box at Mountain View. Alphabet reported 198 billion dollars in Google Search and other advertising revenue for 2024, up 12.5 percent year over year, with Q4 alone at 54 billion. Yet three forces are converging on that n...
Big Tech Antitrust 2026: From Liability to Remedy
Five active US monopolization cases, EU DMA enforcement entering year two, and a global remedy convergence around interoperability mean the operative question is no longer whether platforms will be constrained but how the constraints reprice equity, M&A, and capex.
The 2024 and 2025 dockets converted a decade of platform competition theory into operative law. Judge Amit Mehta's August 2024 liability ruling in United States v. Google held that Google's exclusive default search agreements with Apple, Mozilla, and Android OEMs violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act, 15 USC 2, and the April 2025 remedies...
Quantum Computing Economics in 2026: Roadmaps, Modalities, and the Post-Quantum Migration
IBM, Google, IonQ, Quantinuum, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, and Microsoft are converging on fault tolerance from four physical platforms. Quantum equities have repriced sharply, NIST has finalized its post-quantum cryptography standards, and national programs have moved past 20 billion dollars of cumulative public commitment.
Quantum computing in 2026 is four parallel scaling experiments on transmon, trapped-ion, neutral-atom, and photonic platforms, judged against a shared bar set by the surface code. IBM ships Heron R2 at 156 qubits and targets Kookaburra in 2026 and Blue Jay at 4158 qubits. Google's Willow showed below-threshold operation in late 2024. IonQ...
Small modular reactors meet the hyperscaler load curve
Eighteen months after the Google Kairos and Amazon X-energy announcements, the SMR thesis has moved from PowerPoint to procurement. The binding constraints are now licensing throughput, HALEU supply, and first-of-a-kind cost discipline.
Between September 2024 and December 2024, four hyperscaler nuclear deals reset the demand curve for advanced reactors. Microsoft contracted the Three Mile Island restart with Constellation, Google signed for 500 megawatts of Kairos Power output across six to seven units, Amazon committed to X-energy and a 5 gigawatt pipeline, and Meta ope...