Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Argentina Capital Controls Lifting and the FX Regime Through 2026
On April 11, 2025 the IMF Executive Board approved a USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility for Argentina, and within seventy two hours the Caputo Bausili team lifted the cepo for individuals and floated the peso inside an ARS 1,000 to 1,400 crawling band. Reserves climbed from USD 26 billion in February 2025 to USD 39 billion by April 2025, the parallel dollar gap collapsed from 60 percent to under 10 percent, and the Argentina 2030 USD bond compressed from 25 percent yields to 12 percent. The stabilization is the most consequential FX regime shift in emerging markets since Sri Lanka 2023.
The April 2025 IMF EFF and the simultaneous partial dismantling of the cepo reset Argentina's external anchor for the first time since the 2019 reimposition. The crawling band ARS 1,000 to 1,400 vs USD operates with explicit BCRA intervention rules at the floor and ceiling, the parallel dollar gap has compressed from 60 percent to under 1...
Argentina IMF Year Two: Reserve Build, Cepo Sequencing, and the 2026 Stabilization Bet
The April 11, 2025 USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility reset Argentina's external anchor. Monthly inflation is near 2 percent, the primary surplus holds, and Vaca Muerta plus BOPREAL have rebuilt reserves, while LIBRA and the October 2025 midterms test durability.
On April 11, 2025 the IMF Board approved a 48 month, USD 20 billion Extended Fund Facility for Argentina, replacing the failed 2022 Stand By and front-loading USD 12 billion. On April 14, 2025 the Caputo Bausili team partially liberalized the cepo, floating the peso inside an ARS 1,000 to 1,400 per dollar band and retaining controls only ...
Argentina at Year Two: The Milei Stabilization After the IMF Pivot and the 2025 Midterm
Twenty-eight months in, the Milei program has produced a primary surplus, single-digit monthly inflation, a lifted FX cepo with reserves near 23 billion dollars, and an enlarged La Libertad Avanza caucus after the October 2025 midterm. The next leg turns on dollar-bond compression, Vaca Muerta export ramp, and the political bandwidth to shift the cepo lift from controlled float into full convertibility before 2027.
Javier Milei was inaugurated December 10, 2023 with monthly headline inflation at 25.5 percent, a primary fiscal deficit near 3.0 percent of GDP, and BCRA net reserves close to negative 11 billion dollars. By April 2026 the picture has inverted across every dimension that matters to a sovereign creditor or peso liability holder. The 2024 ...