Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
COP31 and the climate finance gap: from Belem's USD 300 billion floor to a working Article 6 market
COP30 in Belem closed with a New Collective Quantified Goal of USD 300 billion per year by 2035, roughly a quarter of the African Group ask. The 2026 host fight between Australia and Turkey, the first ITMO trades under Article 6.2 and 6.4, and the slow walk of the Loss and Damage Fund will define whether the Paris architecture remains operative through the second NDC cycle.
The COP30 Mutirao political package agreed in Belem on November 21, 2025 delivered a New Collective Quantified Goal of USD 300 billion per year by 2035, with a stretch target of USD 1.3 trillion that defers the question of who pays. Climate Policy Initiative tracked USD 1.46 trillion in total climate finance flows for 2022, but mitigation...
JETP at the inflection: Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Senegal through 2026
Four Just Energy Transition Partnerships now total roughly USD 46.7 billion in announced public and private commitments. The South Africa JET-IP needs USD 98 billion, Indonesia's CIPP needs USD 97.3 billion, and the US tranche has been frozen since the Trump withdrawal from Paris in January 2025. The IPG arithmetic for COP30 has shifted.
The Just Energy Transition Partnerships announced between November 2021 (South Africa, COP26) and June 2023 (Senegal, Paris Summit for a New Global Financing Pact) cumulatively pledged about USD 46.7 billion in concessional public and mobilized private capital across South Africa (USD 8.5 billion initial, raised to USD 13.8 billion at COP...
South Africa 2026: the GNU power deal, Eskom unbundling, and the second draft of the Just Energy Transition
After 332 days of loadshedding in 2023, the grid stabilized through 2024 and the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994. Cyril Ramaphosa's Government of National Unity now has to ratify the National Transmission Company, restructure Eskom debt, and convert USD 11.6 billion of climate finance pledges into hard megawatts.
South Africa entered 2026 with the most consequential political and electricity sector reset since 1994. The May 29, 2024 election delivered the African National Congress 40.18 percent, the Democratic Alliance 21.81 percent, the new MK Party 14.58 percent, and the Economic Freedom Fighters 9.52 percent, ending 30 years of single party rul...