Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
AUKUS Pillar 1 Submarine Economics 2026: A368bn Across Three Yards
Australia's nuclear submarine bet collides with a US shipyard throughput gap, a 20,000 person workforce mountain, and federal opposition that survived the Albanese era.
Australia's optimal pathway to a sovereign nuclear powered submarine fleet now carries a cumulative cost envelope of A368 billion through 2055, the largest single defense acquisition in Australian history. Phase 1 imports three to five Virginia class boats from US production lines starting in the early 2030s. Phase 2 builds the SSN-AUKUS ...
Japan's 2 Percent Defense Path: The FY2027 Endgame and What It Buys
Tokyo's JPY 43 trillion buildup, locked in by the December 2022 cabinet decision, is now in its midpoint year, with counterstrike weapons, Aegis ASEV destroyers, and the GCAP fighter shifting the regional balance more than any postwar Japanese rearmament.
Japan's defense buildup is no longer aspirational. The December 2022 National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program committed JPY 43 trillion across FY2023 to FY2027, with the FY2027 annual envelope set at roughly 2 percent of GDP on the NATO equivalent measure. The FY2024 budget reached JPY 7.95 trilli...