Trade and tariff analytics
2026-04-26
12 min read
10 sources
Trump Second Term Economic Agenda: First Sixteen Months
A tariff stack rebuilt around Section 232, 301, 122, and 338, an OBBA reconciliation that locks TCJA permanence, a DOGE workforce purge, and a Fed independence stress test rewrite the macro baseline through 2029.
The first sixteen months of the second Trump administration have stacked tariff, fiscal, regulatory, and labor shocks at a pace and scale not seen since the early 1980s. Executive Orders issued between January and April 2025 imposed 25 percent duties on Mexico and Canada under IEEPA, restored 25 percent Section 232 steel and aluminum with...