Electoral and political intelligence
2026-04-26
10 minute read
15 sources
Belgium Under De Wever: The Arizona Gamble and the Federal Split
Bart De Wever, the N-VA leader who built his career arguing Belgium has no future, has been federal prime minister since February 3, 2025. The five-party Arizona coalition controls 81 of 150 House seats, owes the EU Commission a structural fiscal correction of 0.5 percentage points per year, and inherits a regional vacuum in Brussels. The bet is that De Wever's confederalist platform can be parked while the Arizona deal compresses a 4.4 percent of GDP deficit and rearms a NATO underspender, all without triggering the seventh state reform.
The June 9, 2024 federal election delivered the most fragmented Belgian parliament since the Second World War. N-VA took 16.8 percent nationally and 24 percent in Flanders. Vlaams Belang reached 22 percent in Flanders without entering government under the standing cordon sanitaire. The Parti Socialiste held 17.3 percent in Wallonia, and t...