Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Panama Canal water economics 2026: Gatun Lake, transit auctions, and the Rio Indio reservoir bet
The 2023 to 2024 drought cut Panama Canal daily transits from 36 to 22, drove a single slot auction to USD 4.0 million, and forced US grain, LPG, and LNG cargoes onto Cape and Suez routings. The Rio Indio reservoir at USD 1.2 to 1.6 billion is the structural answer, but it does not commission until 2030.
The Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ACP) reported FY2023 transit revenue of USD 4.97 billion on 14,080 oceangoing transits, then cut its booking slot count from 36 in normal conditions to 22 by November 2023 as Gatun Lake fell to 79.7 feet against the 87 foot ideal. One transit slot auctioned for USD 3.975 million in November 2023, the hig...
Territorial Rhetoric and Treaty Reliability: Pricing the 2025 to 2026 Trump Doctrine
Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada, Mexico, the Gulf of America, and Gaza relocation talk are not isolated provocations. They are a coherent signal that the United States now treats sovereign borders, NATO commitments, and 1977-vintage treaties as renegotiable, and capital is starting to charge for it.
Between January 2025 and April 2026 the second Trump administration converted territorial rhetoric into operational pressure: a renewed sovereignty bid for Greenland, a public claim that the United States will take the Panama Canal back, a sustained 51st state framing of Canada, fentanyl-linked cartel designations against Mexico, the Gulf...