Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Spain 2026: The Housing and Tourism Vise on a Minority Government
Spain is the euro area growth leader, yet rents in Madrid and Barcelona are running 13 percent above last year, the Vivienda Law's rent caps have been blocked across two thirds of the territory, and Junts per Catalunya has pulled the plug on Sanchez's working majority.
Spain closed 2024 with real GDP growth of 3.2 percent, against 0.5 percent for the euro area, 94 million international tourist arrivals, and a foreign-born driven population gain of 1.1 million. The headline is enviable. Underneath, the Banco de Espana IPVR shows house prices up 11 percent year on year, Idealista records rent growth of 13...
Spain at the Hinge: The Sanchez Sumar Coalition, Catalan Amnesty, and the Fiscal Path to 2026
Pedro Sanchez survived the July 2023 cliff edge with 122 PSOE seats, paid the political price of the June 2024 amnesty law, and rode a 3.2 percent 2024 GDP print past the EU excessive deficit threshold. The remaining bet is whether the Singular Financing pact with Catalonia, the Sumar labour reform pipeline, and a debt stock above 102 percent of GDP can coexist with an EDP-adjacent fiscal trajectory through 2026.
The Spanish 23 July 2023 general election produced a hung parliament: Partido Popular won 137 seats, PSOE 122, Vox 33, Sumar 31, with Junts and ERC holding 14 seats between them. Pedro Sanchez secured investiture on 16 November 2023 with 179 votes by negotiating an amnesty law with Carles Puigdemont's Junts. The Ley de Amnistia, approved ...