Geoeconomic and policy analysis
2026-04-26
11 min read
12 sources
Venezuela Frozen: Maduro's Third Term, Sanctioned Crude, and the Essequibo Wager
Maduro took a third term on January 10, 2025, after a July 28, 2024 election the CNE called for him with 51 percent and the opposition documented as a Gonzalez Urrutia win. The 2026 question is whether sanctions, oil, migration, and Essequibo break the equilibrium.
On July 28, 2024, Venezuela's CNE proclaimed Nicolas Maduro winner of the presidential election with 51.2 percent against Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia at 44.2 percent, without publishing precinct tallies. The opposition, organized around Maria Corina Machado after her 2023 inhabilitacion, published more than 24,500 actas (over 80 percent of m...