Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Namibia's Orange Basin Awakens, Venus FID Slips to 2026 to 2027
Three operators (TotalEnergies, Shell, Galp) have outlined more than 15 billion barrels of recoverable resource off Namibia, yet Venus FID is now 2026 to 2027. Project economics, fiscal terms, and political continuity will decide first oil.
Between January 2022 and April 2024, three operators converted Namibia's Orange Basin from frontier prospect into one of the largest oil discoveries of the decade. TotalEnergies booked 2 to 3 billion barrels recoverable at Venus (Block 2913B), Shell logged Graff, La Rona, Jonker, Lesedi, and Mopane on Block 2913A, and Galp announced Mopan...
Tanzania 2026: Hassan's full mandate, the USD 42 billion LNG decision, and the East African corridor play
Samia Suluhu Hassan secured a full term in October 2025 on a CCM ticket that has now governed Tanzania for 65 years. The decisions facing Dodoma in 2026 are concrete: take final investment decision on the Lindi LNG project with Equinor and Shell, finance the TAZARA rehabilitation to plug into Lobito, and hold a 5 percent growth path while the IMF Extended Credit Facility runs to 2026.
Tanzania has stabilized macro fundamentals under President Hassan: real GDP grew 5.4 percent in 2024 per the National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation held at 3.1 percent on Bank of Tanzania data, and the shilling traded near TZS 2,750 to the dollar through 2025. The October 2025 general election returned Hassan with an official 9...
Tanzania LNG and the East African Gas Decade
The May 2024 Tanzania LNG Host Government Agreement restarted a decade of stalled progress at Lindi, but the USD 42 billion FID has slipped into 2026 and 2027. Mozambique is restarting in parallel, and East African gas is shifting from option value to physical supply.
East Africa is shifting from stranded gas headlines to two anchor liquefaction complexes under active development. Tanzania signed the Host Government Agreement at State House in May 2024 with Equinor, Shell, and TPDC, ending a decade of stalled negotiation under Magufuli era resource nationalism. The integrated USD 42 billion Lindi LNG p...