Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Lagos Crude: Dangote Refinery and the Atlantic Basin Gasoline Reordering Through 2026
Africa's largest refinery is rewriting the Atlantic Basin gasoline map. The 2026 to 2027 question is whether the naira-denominated crude template, NNPCL flotation, and pump price normalization can hold.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery in the Lekki Free Zone east of Lagos sits on a single contiguous site of roughly 2,635 hectares, with a nameplate distillation capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.....
Nigeria 2026: Oil Receipts, Naira Convergence, and the Fiscal Arithmetic
Three years after the June 2023 naira unification and the simultaneous removal of the PMS subsidy, Nigeria enters 2026 with a fragile fiscal recovery whose durability depends on Brent staying above the mid-seventies and on the CBN holding its nerve at the policy rate.
Nigeria's 2026 macro picture is the first in a decade where the headline numbers on debt service, oil receipts, and the FX premium can be discussed with a straight face. The June 2023 naira unification and the contemporaneous PMS subsidy withdrawal have, in combination, restored a measure of fiscal arithmetic that the prior decade lacked....