Macro-financial risk
2026-04-26
12 minute read
14 sources
Brazil 2026: Lula, the Arcabouco, and Sovereign Rating Trajectory
Brazil approaches the October 2026 first round with Lula seeking a fourth term at 80, an Arcabouco Fiscal under stress, Selic at 14.25 percent, and the IBS plus CBS dual VAT entering its 2026 to 2032 transition. Sovereign rating direction depends on three calls.
Brazil heads into the October 4, 2026 first round and likely October 25 runoff with Lula da Silva, who turned 80 on October 27, 2025, declared as the PT candidate for a fourth term. Opposition runs through Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, Parana Governor Ratinho Junior, Goias Governor Ronaldo Caiado, and Minas Gerais Governor Romeu...