Electoral and political intelligence
2026-04-26
10 minute read
17 sources
Canada 2025 to 2026: The Trudeau Exit, the Carney Reset, and the Trump Tariff War
Justin Trudeau resigned the Liberal leadership on January 6, 2025 after a caucus revolt and a Chrystia Freeland resignation that closed the December 16, 2024 fiscal cycle. Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor, replaced him as Liberal leader on March 9, 2025, was sworn in as the 24th Prime Minister on March 14, and led the Liberals to a minority government in the April 28, 2025 federal election. The macro that follows is set by the Trump tariff war, the Bank of Canada easing path, the Trans Mountain expansion barrels, and the USMCA July 2026 review.
Canada closed the Trudeau decade with the lowest end of term Liberal polling since the 1984 collapse, a Section 232 reciprocal tariff war with the second Trump administration, and a Bank of Canada policy rate cut by 100 basis points from a 5.00 percent peak to 4.00 percent through the spring of 2025. Trudeau resigned on January 6, 2025 af...