Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Bank of Japan Normalization 2026: JGB Curve Repricing and the Yen Carry Endgame
After ending NIRP, YCC, and ETF purchases in March 2024 and lifting the policy rate to 0.50 percent in January 2025, the Ueda Bank is tapering JGB purchases from JPY 6 trillion to roughly JPY 3 trillion per month by Q1 2026. The August 5, 2024 carry unwind, the JPY 9.8 trillion MoF intervention episode, and the persistent above target services inflation reset the global rates and FX architecture.
On March 19, 2024 the Bank of Japan exited eight years of negative interest rate policy, ended yield curve control, and stopped ETF and J-REIT purchases, the first rate hike since February 2007. The July 31, 2024 move to 0.25 percent and the January 24, 2025 move to 0.50 percent confirmed the regime shift. The June and July 2024 plan to r...
Japan's 2 Percent Defense Path: The FY2027 Endgame and What It Buys
Tokyo's JPY 43 trillion buildup, locked in by the December 2022 cabinet decision, is now in its midpoint year, with counterstrike weapons, Aegis ASEV destroyers, and the GCAP fighter shifting the regional balance more than any postwar Japanese rearmament.
Japan's defense buildup is no longer aspirational. The December 2022 National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program committed JPY 43 trillion across FY2023 to FY2027, with the FY2027 annual envelope set at roughly 2 percent of GDP on the NATO equivalent measure. The FY2024 budget reached JPY 7.95 trilli...
Japan in 2026: BoJ Normalization, JGB Curve Dynamics, Yen Carry Trade Math
After three decades of unconventional policy, the Bank of Japan is steering rates higher into a system that was architected for zero. The carry trade, the JGB curve, and global duration are all repricing in real time.
Japan in 2026 sits at the most consequential policy inflection of the post bubble era. With the policy rate at 0.75 percent and the BoJ telegraphing a path toward 1.25 percent by mid 2027, the long end of the JGB curve has steepened sharply, the 30 year yield is testing 2.85 percent, and life insurers, GPIF, and global carry traders are a...
Japan Rice Crisis and the Gentan Unwind: Pricing, Politics, and the Reform Window of 2026
Empty supermarket shelves in August 2024, a 60 percent spot price surge, and a reserve release of 210,000 tonnes have shattered the post gentan equilibrium. Koizumi reform proposals, JA Zen Noh dominance, and the 2025 Lower House vote now define the policy contest.
Japan ran out of rice in late August 2024. Retail inventories at supermarket level fell to roughly 80,000 tonnes against a normal carry of about 200,000 tonnes, prompting MAFF to release 210,000 tonnes from the government emergency stockpile in September 2024 (the first such release since the program was created in 1995). Spot wholesale p...
Pacific tuna 2026: the FFA price floor, the eastward drift, and the USD 2 billion access economy
The Western and Central Pacific delivers more than half of the world's tuna catch and a quarter of public revenue for several Pacific Island states. The Vessel Day Scheme floor, the Dec 2024 WCPFC tropical tuna measure, and a warming ocean that pushes skipjack toward the high seas will set the price of Pacific sovereignty over the rest of the decade.
The Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) produced 2.50 million tonnes of tuna in 2023, about 55 percent of global tuna landings, per the Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA) and SPC OFP. Skipjack accounted for roughly 70 percent of the WCPO catch, yellowfin 18 percent, bigeye 8 percent, and South Pacific albacore 4 percent. The eight Parties ...
TSMC's Three Continent Fab Ramp: Arizona, Kumamoto, Dresden, and the Cost of Geographic Diversification
Arizona Phase 1 production live, Phase 2 4 nm pulled forward, Kumamoto JASM Phase 1 in volume, Dresden ESMC ground broken, and capex per wafer above the Taiwan baseline. The geographic diversification is happening; the unit economics still favor Hsinchu and Tainan.
TSMC's overseas footprint is no longer a slide deck. Arizona Fab 21 Phase 1 began commercial 4 nm production in 2024 with first revenue in late 2024 and Apple, AMD, and Nvidia chipsets ramping through 2025. Phase 2, originally scheduled for 3 nm in 2028, was pulled into a 4 nm and 3 nm dual-node configuration with first wafer outs targete...